PHX
ATL
Phoenix Suns @ Atlanta Hawks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Hawks
66% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hawks can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Hawks +4.2, Suns -14.3.
- Simulation: the Hawks win 6,600 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Hawks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.5 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Hawks may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 3,400 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Suns 7th (28.7%), Hawks 20th (24.3%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: the Hawks rank 27th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
- Weak spot: the Hawks rank 20th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (24.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -5.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.9 |
| Win chance | PHX n/a · ATL n/a | PHX 34% · ATL 66% |
| Fair moneyline | PHX +194 · ATL -194 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hawks 118, Suns 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Suns by 11 and Hawks by 22.
Side by side
| PHX | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 3-3 |
| +0.2 16 | Net rating | +1.2 14 |
| 111.8 17 | Offensive rating | 112.5 14 |
| 111.6 13 | Defensive rating | 111.3 11 |
| 53.7% 19 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 11 |
| 54.3% 16 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 19 |
| 14.5 19 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 7 |
| 28.7% 7 | Offensive rebound % | 24.3% 20 |
| 35.9% 13 | 3-point % | 36.7% 7 |
| 100.3 26 | Pace | 104.3 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | 2025-26 | PHX 103 @ ATL 110 | ATL |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025-26 | ATL 124 @ PHX 122 | ATL |
| 2025-01-14 | 2024-25 | PHX 117 @ ATL 122 | ATL |
| 2025-01-09 | 2024-25 | ATL 115 @ PHX 123 | PHX |
| 2024-03-21 | 2023-24 | ATL 115 @ PHX 128 | PHX |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works