PHX
BKN
Phoenix Suns @ Brooklyn Nets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHXPhoenix Suns
57% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Suns can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to the Suns in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Suns 16th (+0.2), Nets 28th (-9.9).
- Simulation: the Suns win 5,730 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Suns' shooting (53.7% eFG%, 19th in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 28th.
- The Suns' offense (111.8 points per 100 possessions, 17th in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 26th.
Disadvantages Why Suns may not
- Upset odds: the Nets win 4,270 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Nets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Nets 13th (74.1%), Suns 28th (71.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Suns lose by 15 or more.
- Body clock: the Suns cross 2 time zones.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHX -2.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.9 |
| Win chance | PHX n/a · BKN n/a | PHX 57% · BKN 43% |
| Fair moneyline | PHX -134 · BKN +134 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nets 114, Suns 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Suns by 19 and Nets by 15.
Side by side
| PHX | BKN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 0-4 |
| +0.2 16 | Net rating | -9.9 28 |
| 111.8 17 | Offensive rating | 105.9 30 |
| 111.6 13 | Defensive rating | 115.9 26 |
| 53.7% 19 | Effective FG% | 52.0% 30 |
| 54.3% 16 | Opponent eFG% | 57.2% 28 |
| 14.5 19 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.8 29 |
| 28.7% 7 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 23 |
| 35.9% 13 | 3-point % | 34.2% 27 |
| 100.3 26 | Pace | 100.4 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-27 | 2025-26 | BKN 102 @ PHX 106 | PHX |
| 2026-01-19 | 2025-26 | PHX 126 @ BKN 117 | PHX |
| 2025-01-22 | 2024-25 | PHX 108 @ BKN 84 | PHX |
| 2024-11-27 | 2024-25 | BKN 127 @ PHX 117 | BKN |
| 2024-01-31 | 2023-24 | PHX 136 @ BKN 120 | PHX |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works