PHX

Phoenix Suns @ Boston Celtics

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

BOS

Our pick

BOSBoston Celtics

71% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

PHX 29%BOS 71%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Celtics can win

Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Suns -14.3.
Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.4 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
Simulation: the Celtics win 7,080 of 10,000 simulated games.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Suns 16th (+0.2).
Home court: the Celtics play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.

Disadvantages Why Celtics may not

Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Celtics 27th (12.8).
Upset odds: the Suns win 2,920 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 10 or more.
Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
Weak spot: the Celtics rank 27th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	BOS -7.3
Total points	n/a	225.2
Win chance	PHX n/a · BOS n/a	PHX 29% · BOS 71%
Fair moneyline		PHX +243 · BOS -243

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Celtics 117, Suns 109.
80% of simulations land between Suns by 10 and Celtics by 24.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Plain links. We are not paid for them and take no bets.

Side by side

PHX		BOS
1-2	Record	3-1
+0.2 16	Net rating	+7.5 4
111.8 17	Offensive rating	116.6 2
111.6 13	Defensive rating	109.1 5
53.7% 19	Effective FG%	55.1% 10
54.3% 16	Opponent eFG%	52.2% 4
14.5 19	Turnovers per 100	12.7 2
28.7% 7	Offensive rebound %	29.0% 6
35.9% 13	3-point %	36.5% 8
100.3 26	Pace	98.1 30

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-03-16	2025-26	PHX 112 @ BOS 120	BOS
2026-02-24	2025-26	BOS 97 @ PHX 81	BOS
2025-04-04	2024-25	PHX 103 @ BOS 123	BOS
2025-03-26	2024-25	BOS 132 @ PHX 102	BOS
2024-03-14	2023-24	PHX 112 @ BOS 127	BOS

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

PHX

Devin Booker G

25.5 pts, 3.9 reb, 5.9 ast in 34 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 5 of 30 (opponent eFG% 52.2%)

PHX

Mark Williams C

11.5 pts, 7.9 reb, 1 ast in 23.6 min, 64% FG

vs a defense ranked 5 of 30 (opponent eFG% 52.2%)

PHX

Dillon Brooks F

20.2 pts, 3.8 reb, 1.9 ast in 31 min, 43% FG

vs a defense ranked 5 of 30 (opponent eFG% 52.2%)

BOS

Jayson Tatum F

23.1 pts, 9.6 reb, 6.1 ast in 34 min, 43% FG

vs a defense ranked 13 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.3%)

BOS

Paul George F

22.2 pts, 6 reb, 3.5 ast in 31.5 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 13 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.3%)

BOS

Payton Pritchard G

16.7 pts, 3.8 reb, 5.1 ast in 32.2 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 13 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.3%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Celtics beat the Suns 120-112 at home (2026-03-16). The difference: they shot 59% effective field goal percentage to 52% and they made 17 threes to 13, a 12-point swing. Jaylen Brown led the Celtics with 41 points.