PHX

Phoenix Suns @ Charlotte Hornets

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

CHA

Our pick

CHACharlotte Hornets

59% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

PHX 41%CHA 59%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Hornets can win

Simulation: the Hornets win 5,900 of 10,000 simulated games.
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Hornets -7.2, Suns -14.3.
Home court: the Hornets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), Suns 16th (+0.2).
Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Hornets 3rd (76.6%), Suns 28th (71.4%).

Disadvantages Why Hornets may not

Upset odds: the Suns win 4,100 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Hornets 28th (12.7).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hornets lose by 15 or more.
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Suns 19th (14.5), Hornets 28th (15.6).
Weak spot: the Hornets rank 28th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.6).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	CHA -2.9
Total points	n/a	221.1
Win chance	PHX n/a · CHA n/a	PHX 41% · CHA 59%
Fair moneyline		PHX +144 · CHA -144

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Hornets 112, Suns 109.
80% of simulations land between Suns by 15 and Hornets by 20.

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Side by side

PHX		CHA
1-2	Record	3-2
+0.2 16	Net rating	+3.7 8
111.8 17	Offensive rating	114.6 7
111.6 13	Defensive rating	110.9 10
53.7% 19	Effective FG%	54.7% 13
54.3% 16	Opponent eFG%	54.0% 10
14.5 19	Turnovers per 100	15.6 28
28.7% 7	Offensive rebound %	30.5% 4
35.9% 13	3-point %	37.2% 4
100.3 26	Pace	100.3 25

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-04-02	2025-26	PHX 107 @ CHA 127	CHA
2026-03-08	2025-26	CHA 99 @ PHX 111	PHX
2025-01-12	2024-25	CHA 113 @ PHX 120	PHX
2025-01-07	2024-25	PHX 104 @ CHA 115	CHA
2024-03-15	2023-24	PHX 107 @ CHA 96	PHX

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

PHX

Devin Booker G

25.5 pts, 3.9 reb, 5.9 ast in 34 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 10 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

PHX

Mark Williams C

11.5 pts, 7.9 reb, 1 ast in 23.6 min, 64% FG

vs a defense ranked 10 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

PHX

Dillon Brooks F

20.2 pts, 3.8 reb, 1.9 ast in 31 min, 43% FG

vs a defense ranked 10 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

CHA

Kon Knueppel G

18.3 pts, 5.3 reb, 3.3 ast in 31.5 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 13 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.3%)

CHA

Brandon Miller F

20.5 pts, 5 reb, 3.2 ast in 30.6 min, 43% FG

vs a defense ranked 13 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.3%)

CHA

Grayson Allen G

15.2 pts, 3 reb, 3 ast in 28.2 min, 44% FG

vs a defense ranked 13 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.3%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Hornets beat the Suns 127-107 at home (2026-04-02). The difference: they won the boards 47 to 31 and they shot 61% effective field goal percentage to 55%. Miles Bridges led the Hornets with 25 points.