PHX
CHI
Phoenix Suns @ Chicago Bulls
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHXPhoenix Suns
57% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Suns can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.7 points to the Suns in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Suns win 5,690 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Suns 16th (+0.2), Bulls 24th (-5.5).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Bulls 29th (12.2).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Suns 7th (28.7%), Bulls 26th (23.4%).
Disadvantages Why Suns may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 4,310 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Bulls play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bulls 6th (75.1%), Suns 28th (71.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Suns lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Suns rank 28th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHX -2.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 236.5 |
| Win chance | PHX n/a · CHI n/a | PHX 57% · CHI 43% |
| Fair moneyline | PHX -132 · CHI +132 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bulls 117, Suns 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Suns by 19 and Bulls by 14.
Side by side
| PHX | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| +0.2 16 | Net rating | -5.5 24 |
| 111.8 17 | Offensive rating | 110.1 25 |
| 111.6 13 | Defensive rating | 115.6 25 |
| 53.7% 19 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 14 |
| 54.3% 16 | Opponent eFG% | 55.3% 21 |
| 14.5 19 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 17 |
| 28.7% 7 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 26 |
| 35.9% 13 | 3-point % | 35.0% 22 |
| 100.3 26 | Pace | 105.5 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | 2025-26 | PHX 120 @ CHI 110 | PHX |
| 2026-03-05 | 2025-26 | CHI 105 @ PHX 103 | CHI |
| 2025-03-19 | 2024-25 | CHI 121 @ PHX 127 | PHX |
| 2025-02-22 | 2024-25 | PHX 121 @ CHI 117 | PHX |
| 2024-01-22 | 2023-24 | CHI 113 @ PHX 115 | PHX |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works