PHX
CLE
Phoenix Suns @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Cavaliers
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Cavaliers +1.0, Suns -14.3.
- Simulation: the Cavaliers win 6,400 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Cavaliers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Suns defense that ranks 16th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to the Cavaliers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 3,600 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 12 or more.
- Three-point shooting: Suns 13th (35.9%), Cavaliers 19th (35.4%).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Cavaliers 10th (14.7).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -4.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.4 |
| Win chance | PHX n/a · CLE n/a | PHX 36% · CLE 64% |
| Fair moneyline | PHX +178 · CLE -178 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Cavaliers 117, Suns 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Suns by 12 and Cavaliers by 21.
Side by side
| PHX | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| +0.2 16 | Net rating | +2.7 10 |
| 111.8 17 | Offensive rating | 114.5 9 |
| 111.6 13 | Defensive rating | 111.8 15 |
| 53.7% 19 | Effective FG% | 55.5% 7 |
| 54.3% 16 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 15 |
| 14.5 19 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.2 15 |
| 28.7% 7 | Offensive rebound % | 27.0% 8 |
| 35.9% 13 | 3-point % | 35.4% 19 |
| 100.3 26 | Pace | 102.6 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | 2025-26 | CLE 113 @ PHX 126 | PHX |
| 2025-12-31 | 2025-26 | PHX 113 @ CLE 129 | CLE |
| 2025-03-21 | 2024-25 | CLE 112 @ PHX 123 | PHX |
| 2025-01-20 | 2024-25 | PHX 92 @ CLE 118 | CLE |
| 2024-04-03 | 2023-24 | CLE 101 @ PHX 122 | PHX |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works