PHX
DEN
Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Nuggets
63% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Nuggets can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Nuggets -3.2, Suns -14.3.
- The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Suns defense that ranks 16th.
- Simulation: the Nuggets win 6,270 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Nuggets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Suns 16th (+0.2).
Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 3,730 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Nuggets 30th (11.9).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Suns 7th (28.7%), Nuggets 28th (23.3%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 30th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (11.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -4.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.6 |
| Win chance | PHX n/a · DEN n/a | PHX 37% · DEN 63% |
| Fair moneyline | PHX +168 · DEN -168 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nuggets 117, Suns 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Suns by 13 and Nuggets by 21.
Side by side
| PHX | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 2-2 |
| +0.2 16 | Net rating | +4.1 7 |
| 111.8 17 | Offensive rating | 118.2 1 |
| 111.6 13 | Defensive rating | 114.1 21 |
| 53.7% 19 | Effective FG% | 56.9% 2 |
| 54.3% 16 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 13 |
| 14.5 19 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 3 |
| 28.7% 7 | Offensive rebound % | 23.3% 28 |
| 35.9% 13 | 3-point % | 38.8% 1 |
| 100.3 26 | Pace | 102.1 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | 2025-26 | DEN 125 @ PHX 123 | DEN |
| 2025-11-29 | 2025-26 | DEN 130 @ PHX 112 | DEN |
| 2025-10-25 | 2025-26 | PHX 111 @ DEN 133 | DEN |
| 2025-03-07 | 2024-25 | PHX 141 @ DEN 149 | DEN |
| 2025-02-08 | 2024-25 | DEN 122 @ PHX 105 | DEN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works