PHX
DET
Phoenix Suns @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
74% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pistons +6.4, Suns -14.3.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.2 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Pistons win 7,410 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Suns 16th (+0.2).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.4 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 2,590 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -8.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 222 |
| Win chance | PHX n/a · DET n/a | PHX 26% · DET 74% |
| Fair moneyline | PHX +286 · DET -286 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 116, Suns 107.
- 80% of simulations land between Suns by 8 and Pistons by 25.
Side by side
| PHX | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| +0.2 16 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 111.8 17 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 111.6 13 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 53.7% 19 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 54.3% 16 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 14.5 19 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 28.7% 7 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 35.9% 13 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 100.3 26 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | 2025-26 | DET 96 @ PHX 114 | PHX |
| 2026-01-15 | 2025-26 | PHX 105 @ DET 108 | DET |
| 2025-01-18 | 2024-25 | PHX 125 @ DET 121 | PHX |
| 2024-12-21 | 2024-25 | DET 133 @ PHX 125 | DET |
| 2024-02-14 | 2023-24 | DET 100 @ PHX 116 | PHX |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works