PHX
GSW
Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
GSWGolden State Warriors
58% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Warriors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Warriors -1.8, Suns -14.3.
- Simulation: the Warriors win 5,810 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Warriors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.7 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.6 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Warriors may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 4,190 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- The Suns' shooting (53.7% eFG%, 19th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 24th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Warriors lose by 14 or more.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Suns 19th (14.5), Warriors 27th (15.5).
- Weak spot: the Warriors rank 27th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GSW -2.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.7 |
| Win chance | PHX n/a · GSW n/a | PHX 42% · GSW 58% |
| Fair moneyline | PHX +139 · GSW -139 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Warriors 116, Suns 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Suns by 14 and Warriors by 19.
Side by side
| PHX | GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| +0.2 16 | Net rating | -0.7 19 |
| 111.8 17 | Offensive rating | 112.2 16 |
| 111.6 13 | Defensive rating | 112.9 17 |
| 53.7% 19 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 12 |
| 54.3% 16 | Opponent eFG% | 55.6% 24 |
| 14.5 19 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.5 27 |
| 28.7% 7 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 11 |
| 35.9% 13 | 3-point % | 35.7% 16 |
| 100.3 26 | Pace | 102.3 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | 2026-27 | GSW 122 @ PHX 131 | PHX |
| 2026-04-17 | 2025-26 | GSW 96 @ PHX 111 | PHX |
| 2026-02-05 | 2025-26 | GSW 101 @ PHX 97 | GSW |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-26 | PHX 116 @ GSW 119 | GSW |
| 2025-12-18 | 2025-26 | GSW 98 @ PHX 99 | PHX |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works