PHX
HOU
Phoenix Suns @ Houston Rockets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
78% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.1 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Suns -14.3.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 7,800 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.2 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Suns 16th (+0.2).
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 2,200 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Rockets 19th (13.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 7 or more.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Suns 19th (14.5), Rockets 26th (15.4).
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -10.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.3 |
| Win chance | PHX n/a · HOU n/a | PHX 22% · HOU 78% |
| Fair moneyline | PHX +354 · HOU -354 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Rockets 118, Suns 108.
- 80% of simulations land between Suns by 7 and Rockets by 27.
Side by side
| PHX | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| +0.2 16 | Net rating | +5.2 6 |
| 111.8 17 | Offensive rating | 114.6 8 |
| 111.6 13 | Defensive rating | 109.4 6 |
| 53.7% 19 | Effective FG% | 54.0% 18 |
| 54.3% 16 | Opponent eFG% | 53.0% 6 |
| 14.5 19 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.4 26 |
| 28.7% 7 | Offensive rebound % | 34.3% 1 |
| 35.9% 13 | 3-point % | 36.2% 11 |
| 100.3 26 | Pace | 100.0 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | 2025-26 | HOU 119 @ PHX 105 | HOU |
| 2026-01-05 | 2025-26 | PHX 97 @ HOU 100 | HOU |
| 2025-12-05 | 2025-26 | PHX 98 @ HOU 117 | HOU |
| 2025-11-24 | 2025-26 | HOU 114 @ PHX 92 | HOU |
| 2025-03-30 | 2024-25 | HOU 148 @ PHX 109 | HOU |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works