PHX
IND
Phoenix Suns @ Indiana Pacers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
INDIndiana Pacers
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pacers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pacers +0.2, Suns -14.3.
- Home court: the Pacers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Pacers win 5,190 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Body clock: the Suns cross 2 time zones.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Pacers 14th (74.0%), Suns 28th (71.4%).
Disadvantages Why Pacers may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 4,810 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Suns 16th (+0.2), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Suns 7th (28.7%), Pacers 29th (21.8%).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Pacers 23rd (13.1).
- Point differential per game: Suns 16th (+0.2), Pacers 26th (-7.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | IND -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.6 |
| Win chance | PHX n/a · IND n/a | PHX 48% · IND 52% |
| Fair moneyline | PHX +108 · IND -108 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pacers 116, Suns 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Suns by 16 and Pacers by 18.
Side by side
| PHX | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| +0.2 16 | Net rating | -7.2 26 |
| 111.8 17 | Offensive rating | 108.4 27 |
| 111.6 13 | Defensive rating | 115.6 24 |
| 53.7% 19 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 22 |
| 54.3% 16 | Opponent eFG% | 55.4% 22 |
| 14.5 19 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 12 |
| 28.7% 7 | Offensive rebound % | 21.8% 29 |
| 35.9% 13 | 3-point % | 35.3% 20 |
| 100.3 26 | Pace | 103.9 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | 2025-26 | PHX 123 @ IND 108 | PHX |
| 2025-11-13 | 2025-26 | IND 98 @ PHX 133 | PHX |
| 2025-01-04 | 2024-25 | PHX 108 @ IND 126 | IND |
| 2024-12-19 | 2024-25 | IND 120 @ PHX 111 | IND |
| 2024-01-26 | 2023-24 | PHX 131 @ IND 133 | IND |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works