PHX

Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Lakers

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

LAL

Our pick

LALLos Angeles Lakers

72% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

PHX 28%LAL 72%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Lakers can win

Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Lakers +9.6, Suns -14.3.
Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
Simulation: the Lakers win 7,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Suns defense that ranks 16th.
Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.3 points to the Lakers in our ratings.

Disadvantages Why Lakers may not

Upset odds: the Suns win 2,830 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Suns 7th (28.7%), Lakers 21st (24.2%).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Lakers lose by 9 or more.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Lakers 11th (14.7).
Weak spot: the Lakers rank 22nd of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (14.9).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	LAL -7.5
Total points	n/a	228
Win chance	PHX n/a · LAL n/a	PHX 28% · LAL 72%
Fair moneyline		PHX +253 · LAL -253

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Lakers 118, Suns 110.
80% of simulations land between Suns by 9 and Lakers by 24.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

PHX		LAL
1-2	Record	4-1
+0.2 16	Net rating	+1.5 13
111.8 17	Offensive rating	114.7 6
111.6 13	Defensive rating	113.2 19
53.7% 19	Effective FG%	57.2% 1
54.3% 16	Opponent eFG%	55.2% 20
14.5 19	Turnovers per 100	14.9 22
28.7% 7	Offensive rebound %	24.2% 21
35.9% 13	3-point %	36.3% 9
100.3 26	Pace	100.5 23

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-04-10	2025-26	PHX 73 @ LAL 101	LAL
2026-02-26	2025-26	LAL 110 @ PHX 113	PHX
2025-12-23	2025-26	LAL 108 @ PHX 132	PHX
2025-12-14	2025-26	LAL 116 @ PHX 114	LAL
2025-12-01	2025-26	PHX 125 @ LAL 108	PHX

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

PHX

Devin Booker G

25.5 pts, 3.9 reb, 5.9 ast in 34 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 19 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.2%)

PHX

Mark Williams C

11.5 pts, 7.9 reb, 1 ast in 23.6 min, 64% FG

vs a defense ranked 19 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.2%)

PHX

Dillon Brooks F

20.2 pts, 3.8 reb, 1.9 ast in 31 min, 43% FG

vs a defense ranked 19 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.2%)

LAL

Luka Doncic G

33.6 pts, 7.7 reb, 8.3 ast in 35.8 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 13 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.3%)

LAL

Austin Reaves G

23 pts, 4.5 reb, 5.5 ast in 34.8 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 13 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.3%)

LAL

Walker Kessler C

14.8 pts, 8.2 reb, 1 ast in 30.4 min, 75% FG

vs a defense ranked 13 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.3%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Lakers beat the Suns 101-73 at home (2026-04-10). The difference: they shot 57% effective field goal percentage to 38% and they committed 12 fewer turnovers (11 to 23). LeBron James led the Lakers with 28 points.