PHX
MEM
Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MEMMemphis Grizzlies
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Grizzlies can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Suns -14.3.
- Simulation: the Grizzlies win 6,390 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.9 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.9 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 3,610 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- The Suns' shooting (53.7% eFG%, 19th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Suns 16th (+0.2), Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Grizzlies lose by 12 or more.
- The Suns' offense (111.8 points per 100 possessions, 17th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 22nd.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MEM -4.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.1 |
| Win chance | PHX n/a · MEM n/a | PHX 36% · MEM 64% |
| Fair moneyline | PHX +177 · MEM -177 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 117, Suns 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Suns by 12 and Grizzlies by 21.
Side by side
| PHX | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| +0.2 16 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 111.8 17 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 111.6 13 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 53.7% 19 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 54.3% 16 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 14.5 19 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 28.7% 7 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 35.9% 13 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 100.3 26 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | 2025-26 | PHX 131 @ MEM 105 | PHX |
| 2026-01-07 | 2025-26 | PHX 117 @ MEM 98 | PHX |
| 2025-10-29 | 2025-26 | MEM 114 @ PHX 113 | MEM |
| 2025-03-10 | 2024-25 | PHX 118 @ MEM 120 | MEM |
| 2025-02-25 | 2024-25 | PHX 148 @ MEM 151 | MEM |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works