PHX
MIA
Phoenix Suns @ Miami Heat
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MIAMiami Heat
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Heat can win
- Home court: the Heat play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Heat win 5,560 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Heat -7.8, Suns -14.3.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Heat 4th (12.8), Suns 19th (14.5).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Heat 8th (74.6%), Suns 28th (71.4%).
Disadvantages Why Heat may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 4,440 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Heat 17th (14.2).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Heat lose by 15 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Suns 7th (28.7%), Heat 16th (25.2%).
- Weak spot: the Heat rank 22nd of 30 in points allowed per game (118.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIA -1.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.6 |
| Win chance | PHX n/a · MIA n/a | PHX 44% · MIA 56% |
| Fair moneyline | PHX +125 · MIA -125 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Heat 118, Suns 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Suns by 15 and Heat by 18.
Side by side
| PHX | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| +0.2 16 | Net rating | +1.6 12 |
| 111.8 17 | Offensive rating | 113.4 11 |
| 111.6 13 | Defensive rating | 111.8 14 |
| 53.7% 19 | Effective FG% | 54.1% 17 |
| 54.3% 16 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 14 |
| 14.5 19 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 4 |
| 28.7% 7 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 16 |
| 35.9% 13 | 3-point % | 35.9% 12 |
| 100.3 26 | Pace | 106.3 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | 2025-26 | MIA 111 @ PHX 102 | MIA |
| 2026-01-13 | 2025-26 | PHX 121 @ MIA 127 | MIA |
| 2024-12-07 | 2024-25 | PHX 111 @ MIA 121 | MIA |
| 2024-11-06 | 2024-25 | MIA 112 @ PHX 115 | PHX |
| 2024-01-29 | 2023-24 | PHX 118 @ MIA 105 | PHX |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works