PHX
MIL
Phoenix Suns @ Milwaukee Bucks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHXPhoenix Suns
57% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Suns can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to the Suns in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Suns win 5,750 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Suns 16th (+0.2), Bucks 25th (-6.4).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Suns 7th (28.7%), Bucks 30th (21.7%).
- The Suns' offense (111.8 points per 100 possessions, 17th in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 27th.
Disadvantages Why Suns may not
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Suns defense that ranks 16th.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 4,250 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Bucks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bucks 11th (74.2%), Suns 28th (71.4%).
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Suns 13th (35.9%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHX -2.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 229 |
| Win chance | PHX n/a · MIL n/a | PHX 57% · MIL 42% |
| Fair moneyline | PHX -135 · MIL +135 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bucks 114, Suns 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Suns by 19 and Bucks by 14.
Side by side
| PHX | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| +0.2 16 | Net rating | -6.4 25 |
| 111.8 17 | Offensive rating | 110.1 24 |
| 111.6 13 | Defensive rating | 116.5 27 |
| 53.7% 19 | Effective FG% | 56.3% 3 |
| 54.3% 16 | Opponent eFG% | 55.7% 25 |
| 14.5 19 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.2 25 |
| 28.7% 7 | Offensive rebound % | 21.7% 30 |
| 35.9% 13 | 3-point % | 38.4% 2 |
| 100.3 26 | Pace | 100.6 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | 2025-26 | MIL 108 @ PHX 105 | MIL |
| 2026-03-10 | 2025-26 | PHX 129 @ MIL 114 | PHX |
| 2025-04-01 | 2024-25 | PHX 123 @ MIL 133 | MIL |
| 2025-03-24 | 2024-25 | MIL 106 @ PHX 108 | PHX |
| 2024-03-17 | 2023-24 | PHX 129 @ MIL 140 | MIL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works