PHX
MIN
Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
73% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Suns -14.3.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.1 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 7,320 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Timberwolves play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.0 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 2,680 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 9 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Suns 7th (28.7%), Timberwolves 13th (26.0%).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -7.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.7 |
| Win chance | PHX n/a · MIN n/a | PHX 27% · MIN 73% |
| Fair moneyline | PHX +273 · MIN -273 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Timberwolves 119, Suns 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Suns by 9 and Timberwolves by 25.
Side by side
| PHX | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| +0.2 16 | Net rating | +2.6 11 |
| 111.8 17 | Offensive rating | 112.7 13 |
| 111.6 13 | Defensive rating | 110.1 8 |
| 53.7% 19 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 9 |
| 54.3% 16 | Opponent eFG% | 52.8% 5 |
| 14.5 19 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.3 16 |
| 28.7% 7 | Offensive rebound % | 26.0% 13 |
| 35.9% 13 | 3-point % | 36.7% 6 |
| 100.3 26 | Pace | 103.8 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | 2025-26 | PHX 104 @ MIN 116 | MIN |
| 2025-12-08 | 2025-26 | PHX 108 @ MIN 105 | PHX |
| 2025-11-21 | 2025-26 | MIN 113 @ PHX 114 | PHX |
| 2025-03-28 | 2024-25 | PHX 109 @ MIN 124 | MIN |
| 2025-03-02 | 2024-25 | MIN 116 @ PHX 98 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works