PHX

Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Pelicans

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

NOP

Our pick

NOPNew Orleans Pelicans

54% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

AZMango model

PHX 46%NOP 53%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Pelicans can win

Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pelicans -2.2, Suns -14.3.
Home court: the Pelicans play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Simulation: the Pelicans win 5,350 of 10,000 simulated games.
Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pelicans 5th (0.22), Suns 28th (0.18).
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pelicans 10th (13.8), Suns 19th (14.5).

Disadvantages Why Pelicans may not

Upset odds: the Suns win 4,650 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Pelicans 18th (14.1).
Three-point shooting: Suns 13th (35.9%), Pelicans 25th (34.4%).
The Suns' offense (111.8 points per 100 possessions, 17th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pelicans lose by 16 or more.

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	NOP -0.9
Total points	n/a	233.2
Win chance	PHX n/a · NOP n/a	PHX 46% · NOP 54%
Fair moneyline		PHX +115 · NOP -115

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Pelicans 117, Suns 116.
80% of simulations land between Suns by 16 and Pelicans by 18.

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Side by side

PHX		NOP
1-2	Record	1-4
+0.2 16	Net rating	-4.2 21
111.8 17	Offensive rating	111.2 18
111.6 13	Defensive rating	115.4 23
53.7% 19	Effective FG%	52.8% 26
54.3% 16	Opponent eFG%	55.5% 23
14.5 19	Turnovers per 100	13.8 10
28.7% 7	Offensive rebound %	26.7% 9
35.9% 13	3-point %	34.4% 25
100.3 26	Pace	104.1 8

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-03-06	2025-26	NOP 116 @ PHX 118	PHX
2025-12-27	2025-26	PHX 123 @ NOP 114	PHX
2025-12-26	2025-26	PHX 115 @ NOP 108	PHX
2025-11-10	2025-26	NOP 98 @ PHX 121	PHX
2025-02-28	2024-25	NOP 108 @ PHX 125	PHX

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

PHX

Devin Booker G

25.5 pts, 3.9 reb, 5.9 ast in 34 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 23 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.5%)

PHX

Mark Williams C

11.5 pts, 7.9 reb, 1 ast in 23.6 min, 64% FG

vs a defense ranked 23 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.5%)

PHX

Dillon Brooks F

20.2 pts, 3.8 reb, 1.9 ast in 31 min, 43% FG

vs a defense ranked 23 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.5%)

NOP

Zion Williamson F

21.1 pts, 5.6 reb, 3.1 ast in 29.9 min, 60% FG

vs a defense ranked 13 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.3%)

NOP

Trey Murphy III F

21 pts, 5.6 reb, 3.7 ast in 35.3 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 13 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.3%)

NOP

Dejounte Murray G

16.9 pts, 5.4 reb, 6.3 ast in 28.8 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 13 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.3%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Suns beat the Pelicans 118-116 at home (2026-03-06). The difference: they made 20 threes to 10, a 30-point swing. Devin Booker led the Suns with 32 points.