PHX
NYK
Phoenix Suns @ New York Knicks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NYKNew York Knicks
72% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Knicks can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Knicks +0.2, Suns -14.3.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to the Knicks in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Knicks win 7,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Suns 16th (+0.2).
- The Knicks' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 5th in the NBA) meets a Suns defense that ranks 16th.
Disadvantages Why Knicks may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 2,830 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 9 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Knicks 15th (14.3).
- Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYK -7.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 222.5 |
| Win chance | PHX n/a · NYK n/a | PHX 28% · NYK 72% |
| Fair moneyline | PHX +253 · NYK -253 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Knicks 115, Suns 108.
- 80% of simulations land between Suns by 9 and Knicks by 24.
Side by side
| PHX | NYK | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| +0.2 16 | Net rating | +7.6 3 |
| 111.8 17 | Offensive rating | 116.4 3 |
| 111.6 13 | Defensive rating | 108.7 4 |
| 53.7% 19 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 5 |
| 54.3% 16 | Opponent eFG% | 53.3% 7 |
| 14.5 19 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.7 9 |
| 28.7% 7 | Offensive rebound % | 29.3% 5 |
| 35.9% 13 | 3-point % | 37.5% 3 |
| 100.3 26 | Pace | 99.8 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | 2025-26 | PHX 106 @ NYK 99 | PHX |
| 2026-01-09 | 2025-26 | NYK 107 @ PHX 112 | PHX |
| 2025-04-06 | 2024-25 | PHX 98 @ NYK 112 | NYK |
| 2024-11-20 | 2024-25 | NYK 138 @ PHX 122 | NYK |
| 2023-12-15 | 2023-24 | NYK 139 @ PHX 122 | NYK |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works