PHX
OKC
Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
73% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Thunder +3.6, Suns -14.3.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.1 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Thunder win 7,320 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Suns 16th (+0.2).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.3 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 2,680 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Suns 7th (28.7%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -8.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 223.5 |
| Win chance | PHX n/a · OKC n/a | PHX 27% · OKC 73% |
| Fair moneyline | PHX +273 · OKC -273 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 116, Suns 108.
- 80% of simulations land between Suns by 9 and Thunder by 25.
Side by side
| PHX | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| +0.2 16 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 111.8 17 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 111.6 13 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 53.7% 19 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 54.3% 16 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 14.5 19 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 28.7% 7 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 35.9% 13 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 100.3 26 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 2026-27 | PHX 114 @ OKC 125 | OKC |
| 2026-04-27 | Playoffs | OKC 131 @ PHX 122 | OKC |
| 2026-04-25 | Playoffs | OKC 121 @ PHX 109 | OKC |
| 2026-04-22 | Playoffs | PHX 107 @ OKC 120 | OKC |
| 2026-04-19 | Playoffs | PHX 84 @ OKC 119 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works