PHX
ORL
Phoenix Suns @ Orlando Magic
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ORLOrlando Magic
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Magic can win
- Home court: the Magic play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Magic win 5,350 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Magic 5th (75.2%), Suns 28th (71.4%).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Magic 1st (0.25), Suns 28th (0.18).
- Body clock: the Suns cross 2 time zones.
Disadvantages Why Magic may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 4,650 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Suns 13th (35.9%), Magic 29th (34.0%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Magic lose by 16 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Suns 7th (28.7%), Magic 19th (24.8%).
- Weak spot: the Magic rank 29th of 30 in three-point shooting (34.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ORL -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.6 |
| Win chance | PHX n/a · ORL n/a | PHX 46% · ORL 54% |
| Fair moneyline | PHX +115 · ORL -115 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Magic 115, Suns 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Suns by 16 and Magic by 18.
Side by side
| PHX | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 1-3 |
| +0.2 16 | Net rating | -0.2 17 |
| 111.8 17 | Offensive rating | 110.4 22 |
| 111.6 13 | Defensive rating | 110.6 9 |
| 53.7% 19 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 28 |
| 54.3% 16 | Opponent eFG% | 53.9% 9 |
| 14.5 19 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.9 11 |
| 28.7% 7 | Offensive rebound % | 24.8% 19 |
| 35.9% 13 | 3-point % | 34.0% 29 |
| 100.3 26 | Pace | 103.1 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2025-26 | PHX 111 @ ORL 115 | ORL |
| 2026-02-21 | 2025-26 | ORL 110 @ PHX 113 | PHX |
| 2024-12-08 | 2024-25 | PHX 110 @ ORL 115 | ORL |
| 2024-11-18 | 2024-25 | ORL 109 @ PHX 99 | ORL |
| 2024-01-28 | 2023-24 | PHX 98 @ ORL 113 | ORL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works