PHX

Phoenix Suns @ Portland Trail Blazers

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

POR

Our pick

PORPortland Trail Blazers

65% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

PHX 35%POR 65%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win

Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Suns -14.3.
Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 6,470 of 10,000 simulated games.
Home court: the Trail Blazers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.2 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.

Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not

Upset odds: the Suns win 3,530 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Three-point shooting: Suns 13th (35.9%), Trail Blazers 28th (34.1%).
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Suns 19th (14.5), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Trail Blazers lose by 12 or more.
Weak spot: the Trail Blazers rank 30th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (16.3).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	POR -4.7
Total points	n/a	229
Win chance	PHX n/a · POR n/a	PHX 35% · POR 65%
Fair moneyline		PHX +183 · POR -183

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Trail Blazers 117, Suns 112.
80% of simulations land between Suns by 12 and Trail Blazers by 22.

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Side by side

PHX		POR
1-2	Record	3-1
+0.2 16	Net rating	-0.5 18
111.8 17	Offensive rating	110.9 21
111.6 13	Defensive rating	111.4 12
53.7% 19	Effective FG%	53.2% 24
54.3% 16	Opponent eFG%	54.1% 12
14.5 19	Turnovers per 100	16.3 30
28.7% 7	Offensive rebound %	30.9% 2
35.9% 13	3-point %	34.1% 28
100.3 26	Pace	103.7 11

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-10-21	2026-27	PHX 83 @ POR 124	POR
2026-04-14	2025-26	POR 114 @ PHX 110	POR
2026-02-22	2025-26	POR 92 @ PHX 77	POR
2026-02-03	2025-26	PHX 130 @ POR 125	PHX
2025-11-18	2025-26	PHX 127 @ POR 110	PHX

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

PHX

Devin Booker G

25.5 pts, 3.9 reb, 5.9 ast in 34 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 12 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

PHX

Mark Williams C

11.5 pts, 7.9 reb, 1 ast in 23.6 min, 64% FG

vs a defense ranked 12 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

PHX

Dillon Brooks F

20.2 pts, 3.8 reb, 1.9 ast in 31 min, 43% FG

vs a defense ranked 12 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

POR

Deni Avdija F

24.2 pts, 6.9 reb, 6.6 ast in 33.4 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 13 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.3%)

POR

Ja Morant G

15.8 pts, 2.5 reb, 5.5 ast in 26 min, 54% FG

vs a defense ranked 13 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.3%)

POR

Damian Lillard G

18.5 pts, 3.8 reb, 3.5 ast in 29.5 min, 40% FG

vs a defense ranked 13 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.3%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Trail Blazers beat the Suns 124-83 at home (2026-10-21). The difference: they shot 58% effective field goal percentage to 39% and they made 19 threes to 6, a 39-point swing. Damian Lillard led the Trail Blazers with 25 points.