PHX
SAC
Phoenix Suns @ Sacramento Kings
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHXPhoenix Suns
63% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Suns can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.3 points to the Suns in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Suns 16th (+0.2), Kings 29th (-10.1).
- Simulation: the Suns win 6,330 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Suns' shooting (53.7% eFG%, 19th in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 29th.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.9 points to the Suns in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Suns may not
- Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Kings win 3,670 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Suns lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Suns rank 28th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.4%).
- Weak spot: the Suns rank 28th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHX -4.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.8 |
| Win chance | PHX n/a · SAC n/a | PHX 63% · SAC 37% |
| Fair moneyline | PHX -173 · SAC +173 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Kings 113, Suns 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Suns by 21 and Kings by 12.
Side by side
| PHX | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 0-5 |
| +0.2 16 | Net rating | -10.1 29 |
| 111.8 17 | Offensive rating | 108.3 28 |
| 111.6 13 | Defensive rating | 118.5 28 |
| 53.7% 19 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 29 |
| 54.3% 16 | Opponent eFG% | 57.3% 29 |
| 14.5 19 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.1 14 |
| 28.7% 7 | Offensive rebound % | 25.8% 14 |
| 35.9% 13 | 3-point % | 33.8% 30 |
| 100.3 26 | Pace | 102.4 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | 2025-26 | PHX 114 @ SAC 103 | PHX |
| 2026-01-02 | 2025-26 | SAC 102 @ PHX 129 | PHX |
| 2025-11-26 | 2025-26 | PHX 112 @ SAC 100 | PHX |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-26 | SAC 116 @ PHX 120 | PHX |
| 2025-04-13 | 2024-25 | PHX 98 @ SAC 109 | SAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works