PHX
SAS
Phoenix Suns @ San Antonio Spurs
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
77% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.0 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Spurs +6.6, Suns -14.3.
- Simulation: the Spurs win 7,700 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Suns 16th (+0.2).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.7 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Spurs 25th (13.0).
- Upset odds: the Suns win 2,300 of 10,000 simulations (23%). A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -9.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.7 |
| Win chance | PHX n/a · SAS n/a | PHX 23% · SAS 77% |
| Fair moneyline | PHX +335 · SAS -335 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Spurs 118, Suns 109.
- 80% of simulations land between Suns by 7 and Spurs by 26.
Side by side
| PHX | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| +0.2 16 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 111.8 17 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 111.6 13 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 53.7% 19 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 54.3% 16 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 14.5 19 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 28.7% 7 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 10 |
| 35.9% 13 | 3-point % | 35.8% 14 |
| 100.3 26 | Pace | 102.5 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | 2025-26 | PHX 100 @ SAS 101 | SAS |
| 2026-02-19 | 2025-26 | PHX 94 @ SAS 121 | SAS |
| 2025-11-23 | 2025-26 | SAS 102 @ PHX 111 | PHX |
| 2025-11-02 | 2025-26 | SAS 118 @ PHX 130 | PHX |
| 2025-04-11 | 2024-25 | SAS 98 @ PHX 117 | PHX |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works