PHX
WAS
Phoenix Suns @ Washington Wizards
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHXPhoenix Suns
53% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Suns can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Suns 16th (+0.2), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- The Suns' offense (111.8 points per 100 possessions, 17th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to the Suns in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Suns win 5,300 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Suns 16th (+0.2), Wizards 30th (-11.4).
Disadvantages Why Suns may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Wizards -2.2, Suns -14.3.
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 4,700 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Wizards play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Suns lose by 16 or more.
- Body clock: the Suns cross 2 time zones.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHX -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.3 |
| Win chance | PHX n/a · WAS n/a | PHX 53% · WAS 47% |
| Fair moneyline | PHX -113 · WAS +113 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wizards 115, Suns 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Suns by 18 and Wizards by 16.
Side by side
| PHX | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| +0.2 16 | Net rating | -10.9 30 |
| 111.8 17 | Offensive rating | 108.2 29 |
| 111.6 13 | Defensive rating | 119.2 30 |
| 53.7% 19 | Effective FG% | 53.5% 21 |
| 54.3% 16 | Opponent eFG% | 55.9% 27 |
| 14.5 19 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 23 |
| 28.7% 7 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 22 |
| 35.9% 13 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 100.3 26 | Pace | 104.3 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | 2025-26 | WAS 93 @ PHX 112 | PHX |
| 2025-12-29 | 2025-26 | PHX 115 @ WAS 101 | PHX |
| 2025-01-25 | 2024-25 | WAS 109 @ PHX 119 | PHX |
| 2025-01-16 | 2024-25 | PHX 130 @ WAS 123 | PHX |
| 2024-02-04 | 2023-24 | PHX 140 @ WAS 112 | PHX |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works