POR
ATL
Portland Trail Blazers @ Atlanta Hawks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Hawks
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hawks can win
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Hawks 7th (13.6), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Home court: the Hawks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Hawks win 5,580 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Three-point shooting: Hawks 7th (36.7%), Trail Blazers 28th (34.1%).
- Body clock: the Trail Blazers cross 3 time zones.
Disadvantages Why Hawks may not
- Upset odds: the Trail Blazers win 4,420 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Trail Blazers 2nd (30.9%), Hawks 20th (24.3%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 15 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Trail Blazers 12th (0.21), Hawks 27th (0.18).
- Weak spot: the Hawks rank 27th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -2.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.7 |
| Win chance | POR n/a · ATL n/a | POR 44% · ATL 56% |
| Fair moneyline | POR +126 · ATL -126 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hawks 118, Trail Blazers 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Trail Blazers by 15 and Hawks by 18.
Side by side
| POR | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-3 |
| -0.5 18 | Net rating | +1.2 14 |
| 110.9 21 | Offensive rating | 112.5 14 |
| 111.4 12 | Defensive rating | 111.3 11 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 11 |
| 54.1% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 19 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 7 |
| 30.9% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 24.3% 20 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 36.7% 7 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 104.3 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | 2025-26 | POR 101 @ ATL 135 | ATL |
| 2026-01-15 | 2025-26 | ATL 101 @ POR 117 | POR |
| 2025-04-01 | 2024-25 | POR 127 @ ATL 113 | POR |
| 2024-11-17 | 2024-25 | ATL 110 @ POR 114 | POR |
| 2024-03-27 | 2023-24 | POR 106 @ ATL 120 | ATL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works