POR
BKN
Portland Trail Blazers @ Brooklyn Nets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
66% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.7 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Nets -9.8.
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 6,620 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.5 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5), Nets 28th (-9.9).
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Home court: the Nets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Nets win 3,380 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Trail Blazers lose by 11 or more.
- Body clock: the Trail Blazers cross 3 time zones.
- Weak spot: the Trail Blazers rank 30th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (16.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -5.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.7 |
| Win chance | POR n/a · BKN n/a | POR 66% · BKN 34% |
| Fair moneyline | POR -196 · BKN +196 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nets 114, Trail Blazers 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Trail Blazers by 22 and Nets by 11.
Side by side
| POR | BKN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 0-4 |
| -0.5 18 | Net rating | -9.9 28 |
| 110.9 21 | Offensive rating | 105.9 30 |
| 111.4 12 | Defensive rating | 115.9 26 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 52.0% 30 |
| 54.1% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 57.2% 28 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.8 29 |
| 30.9% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 23 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 34.2% 27 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 100.4 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | 2025-26 | BKN 99 @ POR 134 | POR |
| 2026-03-16 | 2025-26 | POR 114 @ BKN 95 | POR |
| 2025-02-28 | 2024-25 | POR 121 @ BKN 102 | POR |
| 2025-01-14 | 2024-25 | BKN 132 @ POR 114 | BKN |
| 2024-01-17 | 2023-24 | BKN 103 @ POR 105 | POR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works