POR
BOS
Portland Trail Blazers @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5).
- Simulation: the Celtics win 6,360 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Celtics 2nd (12.7), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Home court: the Celtics play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Point differential per game: Celtics 4th (+7.3), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5).
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Trail Blazers win 3,640 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Trail Blazers 7th (15.0), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 12 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Trail Blazers 12th (0.21), Celtics 29th (0.17).
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -4.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.9 |
| Win chance | POR n/a · BOS n/a | POR 36% · BOS 64% |
| Fair moneyline | POR +175 · BOS -175 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 116, Trail Blazers 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Trail Blazers by 12 and Celtics by 21.
Side by side
| POR | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| -0.5 18 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 110.9 21 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 111.4 12 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 54.1% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 30.9% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-26 | 2025-26 | POR 94 @ BOS 102 | BOS |
| 2025-12-28 | 2025-26 | BOS 108 @ POR 114 | POR |
| 2025-03-23 | 2024-25 | BOS 129 @ POR 116 | BOS |
| 2025-03-05 | 2024-25 | POR 118 @ BOS 128 | BOS |
| 2024-04-07 | 2023-24 | POR 107 @ BOS 124 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works