POR
CHA
Portland Trail Blazers @ Charlotte Hornets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CHACharlotte Hornets
50% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hornets can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5).
- Home court: the Hornets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Three-point shooting: Hornets 4th (37.2%), Trail Blazers 28th (34.1%).
- Simulation: the Hornets win 5,000 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Hornets 3rd (76.6%), Trail Blazers 24th (72.9%).
Disadvantages Why Hornets may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Hornets -7.2.
- Upset odds: the Trail Blazers win 5,000 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Trail Blazers 7th (15.0), Hornets 28th (12.7).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.2 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hornets lose by 17 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 223.9 |
| Win chance | POR n/a · CHA n/a | POR 50% · CHA 50% |
| Fair moneyline | POR +100 · CHA -100 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hornets 112, Trail Blazers 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Trail Blazers by 17 and Hornets by 16.
Side by side
| POR | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| -0.5 18 | Net rating | +3.7 8 |
| 110.9 21 | Offensive rating | 114.6 7 |
| 111.4 12 | Defensive rating | 110.9 10 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 54.7% 13 |
| 54.1% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 10 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.6 28 |
| 30.9% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 30.5% 4 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 37.2% 4 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 100.3 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | 2025-26 | CHA 103 @ POR 101 | CHA |
| 2026-02-28 | 2025-26 | POR 93 @ CHA 109 | CHA |
| 2025-02-22 | 2024-25 | CHA 88 @ POR 141 | POR |
| 2025-01-24 | 2024-25 | POR 102 @ CHA 97 | POR |
| 2024-04-03 | 2023-24 | POR 89 @ CHA 86 | POR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works