POR
CLE
Portland Trail Blazers @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Cavaliers
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- Home court: the Cavaliers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Cavaliers win 5,470 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 15th (14.2), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Trail Blazers defense that ranks 12th.
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- Upset odds: the Trail Blazers win 4,530 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Cavaliers +1.0.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 15 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Trail Blazers 2nd (30.9%), Cavaliers 8th (27.0%).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -1.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.1 |
| Win chance | POR n/a · CLE n/a | POR 45% · CLE 55% |
| Fair moneyline | POR +121 · CLE -121 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Cavaliers 117, Trail Blazers 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Trail Blazers by 15 and Cavaliers by 18.
Side by side
| POR | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| -0.5 18 | Net rating | +2.7 10 |
| 110.9 21 | Offensive rating | 114.5 9 |
| 111.4 12 | Defensive rating | 111.8 15 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 55.5% 7 |
| 54.1% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 15 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.2 15 |
| 30.9% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 27.0% 8 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 35.4% 19 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 102.6 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | 2025-26 | CLE 130 @ POR 111 | CLE |
| 2025-12-03 | 2025-26 | POR 122 @ CLE 110 | POR |
| 2025-03-25 | 2024-25 | CLE 122 @ POR 111 | CLE |
| 2025-03-02 | 2024-25 | POR 129 @ CLE 133 | CLE |
| 2023-11-30 | 2023-24 | POR 103 @ CLE 95 | POR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works