POR
DAL
Portland Trail Blazers @ Dallas Mavericks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Mavericks
51% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Mavericks can win
- Home court: the Mavericks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Mavericks win 5,140 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Mavericks 13th (14.0), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Body clock: the Trail Blazers cross 2 time zones.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Mavericks 16th (73.9%), Trail Blazers 24th (72.9%).
Disadvantages Why Mavericks may not
- Upset odds: the Trail Blazers win 4,860 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Mavericks +2.0.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Trail Blazers 2nd (30.9%), Mavericks 25th (23.4%).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Trail Blazers 7th (15.0), Mavericks 26th (12.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Mavericks lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -0.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.1 |
| Win chance | POR n/a · DAL n/a | POR 49% · DAL 51% |
| Fair moneyline | POR +106 · DAL -106 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Mavericks 117, Trail Blazers 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Trail Blazers by 16 and Mavericks by 17.
Side by side
| POR | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| -0.5 18 | Net rating | -4.8 23 |
| 110.9 21 | Offensive rating | 108.7 26 |
| 111.4 12 | Defensive rating | 113.5 20 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 52.9% 25 |
| 54.1% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 54.5% 17 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 13 |
| 30.9% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 25 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 34.4% 26 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 105.0 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | 2025-26 | DAL 100 @ POR 93 | DAL |
| 2025-12-29 | 2025-26 | DAL 122 @ POR 125 | POR |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025-26 | POR 133 @ DAL 138 | DAL |
| 2025-01-09 | 2024-25 | POR 111 @ DAL 117 | DAL |
| 2024-12-28 | 2024-25 | DAL 122 @ POR 126 | POR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works