POR
DEN
Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Nuggets
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Nuggets can win
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Nuggets 3rd (12.7), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5).
- Three-point shooting: Nuggets 1st (38.8%), Trail Blazers 28th (34.1%).
- Home court: the Nuggets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Trail Blazers defense that ranks 12th.
Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Nuggets -3.2.
- Upset odds: the Trail Blazers win 4,760 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Trail Blazers 2nd (30.9%), Nuggets 28th (23.3%).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Trail Blazers 7th (15.0), Nuggets 30th (11.9).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -1.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.3 |
| Win chance | POR n/a · DEN n/a | POR 48% · DEN 52% |
| Fair moneyline | POR +110 · DEN -110 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nuggets 117, Trail Blazers 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Trail Blazers by 15 and Nuggets by 17.
Side by side
| POR | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 2-2 |
| -0.5 18 | Net rating | +4.1 7 |
| 110.9 21 | Offensive rating | 118.2 1 |
| 111.4 12 | Defensive rating | 114.1 21 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 56.9% 2 |
| 54.1% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 13 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 3 |
| 30.9% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 23.3% 28 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 38.8% 1 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 102.1 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | 2025-26 | POR 132 @ DEN 137 | DEN |
| 2026-03-22 | 2025-26 | POR 112 @ DEN 128 | DEN |
| 2026-02-20 | 2025-26 | DEN 157 @ POR 103 | DEN |
| 2025-10-31 | 2025-26 | DEN 107 @ POR 109 | POR |
| 2025-03-21 | 2024-25 | DEN 109 @ POR 128 | POR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works