POR
DET
Portland Trail Blazers @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
66% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Simulation: the Pistons win 6,640 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Home court: the Pistons play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Point differential per game: Pistons 5th (+7.2), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5).
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Trail Blazers win 3,360 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -5.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.8 |
| Win chance | POR n/a · DET n/a | POR 34% · DET 66% |
| Fair moneyline | POR +198 · DET -198 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 115, Trail Blazers 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Trail Blazers by 12 and Pistons by 23.
Side by side
| POR | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| -0.5 18 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 110.9 21 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 111.4 12 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 54.1% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 30.9% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-22 | 2025-26 | DET 110 @ POR 102 | DET |
| 2025-12-05 | 2025-26 | POR 116 @ DET 122 | DET |
| 2025-03-09 | 2024-25 | DET 119 @ POR 112 | DET |
| 2025-01-06 | 2024-25 | POR 115 @ DET 118 | DET |
| 2024-02-08 | 2023-24 | DET 128 @ POR 122 | DET |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works