POR
GSW
Portland Trail Blazers @ Golden State Warriors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
51% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Warriors -1.8.
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 5,110 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Trail Blazers 2nd (30.9%), Warriors 11th (26.3%).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Trail Blazers 12th (0.21), Warriors 24th (0.20).
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 4,890 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Warriors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Three-point shooting: Warriors 16th (35.7%), Trail Blazers 28th (34.1%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Trail Blazers lose by 16 or more.
- Weak spot: the Trail Blazers rank 30th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (16.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.5 |
| Win chance | POR n/a · GSW n/a | POR 51% · GSW 49% |
| Fair moneyline | POR -104 · GSW +104 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Warriors 117, Trail Blazers 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Trail Blazers by 17 and Warriors by 16.
Side by side
| POR | GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| -0.5 18 | Net rating | -0.7 19 |
| 110.9 21 | Offensive rating | 112.2 16 |
| 111.4 12 | Defensive rating | 112.9 17 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 12 |
| 54.1% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 55.6% 24 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.5 27 |
| 30.9% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 11 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 35.7% 16 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 102.3 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-13 | 2025-26 | POR 97 @ GSW 119 | GSW |
| 2025-12-14 | 2025-26 | GSW 131 @ POR 136 | POR |
| 2025-11-21 | 2025-26 | POR 127 @ GSW 123 | POR |
| 2025-10-24 | 2025-26 | GSW 119 @ POR 139 | POR |
| 2025-04-11 | 2024-25 | GSW 103 @ POR 86 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works