POR
HOU
Portland Trail Blazers @ Houston Rockets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
70% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Simulation: the Rockets win 7,040 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.3 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5).
- Home court: the Rockets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.0 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Upset odds: the Trail Blazers win 2,960 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 10 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Trail Blazers 7th (15.0), Rockets 19th (13.8).
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Trail Blazers 12th (0.21), Rockets 18th (0.20).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -7 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.1 |
| Win chance | POR n/a · HOU n/a | POR 30% · HOU 70% |
| Fair moneyline | POR +237 · HOU -237 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Rockets 118, Trail Blazers 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Trail Blazers by 10 and Rockets by 24.
Side by side
| POR | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| -0.5 18 | Net rating | +5.2 6 |
| 110.9 21 | Offensive rating | 114.6 8 |
| 111.4 12 | Defensive rating | 109.4 6 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 54.0% 18 |
| 54.1% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 53.0% 6 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.4 26 |
| 30.9% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 34.3% 1 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 36.2% 11 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 100.0 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | 2025-26 | POR 99 @ HOU 106 | HOU |
| 2026-01-09 | 2025-26 | HOU 105 @ POR 111 | POR |
| 2026-01-07 | 2025-26 | HOU 102 @ POR 103 | POR |
| 2025-11-14 | 2025-26 | POR 116 @ HOU 140 | HOU |
| 2025-01-18 | 2024-25 | HOU 125 @ POR 103 | HOU |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works