POR
IND
Portland Trail Blazers @ Indiana Pacers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
57% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.7 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Pacers +0.2.
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 5,740 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Trail Blazers 2nd (30.9%), Pacers 29th (21.8%).
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 4,260 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Pacers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pacers 12th (14.0), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Trail Blazers lose by 15 or more.
- Body clock: the Trail Blazers cross 3 time zones.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -2.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.4 |
| Win chance | POR n/a · IND n/a | POR 57% · IND 43% |
| Fair moneyline | POR -134 · IND +134 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pacers 115, Trail Blazers 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Trail Blazers by 19 and Pacers by 15.
Side by side
| POR | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| -0.5 18 | Net rating | -7.2 26 |
| 110.9 21 | Offensive rating | 108.4 27 |
| 111.4 12 | Defensive rating | 115.6 24 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 22 |
| 54.1% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 55.4% 22 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 12 |
| 30.9% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 21.8% 29 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 35.3% 20 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 103.9 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | 2025-26 | POR 127 @ IND 119 | POR |
| 2026-03-08 | 2025-26 | IND 111 @ POR 131 | POR |
| 2025-02-04 | 2024-25 | IND 89 @ POR 112 | POR |
| 2024-11-27 | 2024-25 | POR 114 @ IND 121 | IND |
| 2024-01-19 | 2023-24 | IND 115 @ POR 118 | POR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works