POR
MEM
Portland Trail Blazers @ Memphis Grizzlies
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MEMMemphis Grizzlies
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Grizzlies can win
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Grizzlies win 5,540 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Grizzlies 18th (14.5), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Three-point shooting: Grizzlies 17th (35.5%), Trail Blazers 28th (34.1%).
- Body clock: the Trail Blazers cross 2 time zones.
Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not
- Upset odds: the Trail Blazers win 4,460 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Trail Blazers 2nd (30.9%), Grizzlies 17th (25.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Grizzlies lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 29th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.0%).
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 26th of 30 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (55.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MEM -1.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.9 |
| Win chance | POR n/a · MEM n/a | POR 45% · MEM 55% |
| Fair moneyline | POR +124 · MEM -124 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 117, Trail Blazers 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Trail Blazers by 15 and Grizzlies by 18.
Side by side
| POR | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| -0.5 18 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 110.9 21 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 111.4 12 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 54.1% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 30.9% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | 2026-27 | MEM 124 @ POR 103 | MEM |
| 2026-03-04 | 2025-26 | POR 122 @ MEM 114 | POR |
| 2026-02-07 | 2025-26 | MEM 115 @ POR 122 | POR |
| 2026-02-06 | 2025-26 | MEM 115 @ POR 135 | POR |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-26 | POR 96 @ MEM 119 | MEM |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works