POR
MIA
Portland Trail Blazers @ Miami Heat
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Heat -7.8.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 5,410 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.0 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Trail Blazers 2nd (30.9%), Heat 16th (25.2%).
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Upset odds: the Heat win 4,590 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Heat 4th (12.8), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Home court: the Heat play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Heat 12th (+1.6), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5).
- Three-point shooting: Heat 12th (35.9%), Trail Blazers 28th (34.1%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -1.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 236.4 |
| Win chance | POR n/a · MIA n/a | POR 54% · MIA 46% |
| Fair moneyline | POR -118 · MIA +118 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Heat 118, Trail Blazers 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Trail Blazers by 18 and Heat by 15.
Side by side
| POR | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| -0.5 18 | Net rating | +1.6 12 |
| 110.9 21 | Offensive rating | 113.4 11 |
| 111.4 12 | Defensive rating | 111.8 14 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 54.1% 17 |
| 54.1% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 14 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 4 |
| 30.9% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 16 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 35.9% 12 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 106.3 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-22 | 2025-26 | MIA 110 @ POR 127 | POR |
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-26 | POR 131 @ MIA 136 | MIA |
| 2025-01-21 | 2024-25 | POR 116 @ MIA 107 | POR |
| 2025-01-11 | 2024-25 | MIA 119 @ POR 98 | MIA |
| 2024-03-29 | 2023-24 | POR 82 @ MIA 142 | MIA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works