POR
MIN
Portland Trail Blazers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 6,500 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Home court: the Timberwolves play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Three-point shooting: Timberwolves 6th (36.7%), Trail Blazers 28th (34.1%).
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Timberwolves 11th (+2.6), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5).
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Trail Blazers win 3,500 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 12 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Trail Blazers 2nd (30.9%), Timberwolves 13th (26.0%).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Trail Blazers 7th (15.0), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -4.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.4 |
| Win chance | POR n/a · MIN n/a | POR 35% · MIN 65% |
| Fair moneyline | POR +185 · MIN -185 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Timberwolves 118, Trail Blazers 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Trail Blazers by 12 and Timberwolves by 21.
Side by side
| POR | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| -0.5 18 | Net rating | +2.6 11 |
| 110.9 21 | Offensive rating | 112.7 13 |
| 111.4 12 | Defensive rating | 110.1 8 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 9 |
| 54.1% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 52.8% 5 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.3 16 |
| 30.9% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 26.0% 13 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 36.7% 6 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 103.8 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | 2025-26 | POR 108 @ MIN 104 | POR |
| 2026-02-24 | 2025-26 | MIN 124 @ POR 121 | MIN |
| 2026-02-11 | 2025-26 | POR 109 @ MIN 133 | MIN |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-26 | MIN 118 @ POR 114 | MIN |
| 2025-02-08 | 2024-25 | POR 98 @ MIN 114 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works