POR
NOP
Portland Trail Blazers @ New Orleans Pelicans
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Pelicans -2.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 5,600 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.4 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Trail Blazers 7th (15.0), Pelicans 18th (14.1).
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 4,400 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Pelicans play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pelicans 10th (13.8), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Trail Blazers lose by 15 or more.
- Body clock: the Trail Blazers cross 2 time zones.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -2.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.9 |
| Win chance | POR n/a · NOP n/a | POR 56% · NOP 44% |
| Fair moneyline | POR -127 · NOP +127 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pelicans 117, Trail Blazers 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Trail Blazers by 19 and Pelicans by 15.
Side by side
| POR | NOP | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| -0.5 18 | Net rating | -4.2 21 |
| 110.9 21 | Offensive rating | 111.2 18 |
| 111.4 12 | Defensive rating | 115.4 23 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 52.8% 26 |
| 54.1% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 55.5% 23 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.8 10 |
| 30.9% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 26.7% 9 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 34.4% 25 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 104.1 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | 2025-26 | NOP 106 @ POR 118 | POR |
| 2026-01-02 | 2025-26 | POR 122 @ NOP 109 | POR |
| 2025-12-11 | 2025-26 | POR 120 @ NOP 143 | NOP |
| 2025-11-12 | 2025-26 | POR 125 @ NOP 117 | POR |
| 2025-01-08 | 2024-25 | POR 119 @ NOP 100 | POR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works