POR
NYK
Portland Trail Blazers @ New York Knicks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NYKNew York Knicks
63% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Knicks can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5).
- Simulation: the Knicks win 6,330 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Knicks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Three-point shooting: Knicks 3rd (37.5%), Trail Blazers 28th (34.1%).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Knicks 9th (13.7), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
Disadvantages Why Knicks may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Knicks +0.2.
- Upset odds: the Trail Blazers win 3,670 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 13 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Trail Blazers 12th (0.21), Knicks 25th (0.19).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Trail Blazers 7th (15.0), Knicks 15th (14.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYK -4.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.3 |
| Win chance | POR n/a · NYK n/a | POR 37% · NYK 63% |
| Fair moneyline | POR +172 · NYK -172 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Knicks 115, Trail Blazers 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Trail Blazers by 13 and Knicks by 21.
Side by side
| POR | NYK | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| -0.5 18 | Net rating | +7.6 3 |
| 110.9 21 | Offensive rating | 116.4 3 |
| 111.4 12 | Defensive rating | 108.7 4 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 5 |
| 54.1% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 53.3% 7 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.7 9 |
| 30.9% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 29.3% 5 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 37.5% 3 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 99.8 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | 2025-26 | POR 97 @ NYK 127 | NYK |
| 2026-01-11 | 2025-26 | NYK 123 @ POR 114 | NYK |
| 2025-03-30 | 2024-25 | POR 93 @ NYK 110 | NYK |
| 2025-03-12 | 2024-25 | NYK 114 @ POR 113 | NYK |
| 2024-03-14 | 2023-24 | NYK 105 @ POR 93 | NYK |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works