POR
OKC
Portland Trail Blazers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
66% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5).
- Simulation: the Thunder win 6,580 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (12.5), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Thunder 1st (+10.2), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5).
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Trail Blazers win 3,420 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Trail Blazers 2nd (30.9%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -5.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.3 |
| Win chance | POR n/a · OKC n/a | POR 34% · OKC 66% |
| Fair moneyline | POR +193 · OKC -193 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 116, Trail Blazers 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Trail Blazers by 11 and Thunder by 22.
Side by side
| POR | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| -0.5 18 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 110.9 21 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 111.4 12 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 54.1% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 30.9% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 2025-26 | POR 95 @ OKC 124 | OKC |
| 2025-11-30 | 2025-26 | OKC 123 @ POR 115 | OKC |
| 2025-11-23 | 2025-26 | POR 95 @ OKC 122 | OKC |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-26 | OKC 119 @ POR 121 | POR |
| 2025-03-07 | 2024-25 | POR 89 @ OKC 107 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works