POR
ORL
Portland Trail Blazers @ Orlando Magic
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Magic -12.5.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 5,540 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Trail Blazers 2nd (30.9%), Magic 19th (24.8%).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.2 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Upset odds: the Magic win 4,460 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Magic play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Magic 11th (13.9), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Magic 5th (75.2%), Trail Blazers 24th (72.9%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Trail Blazers lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -1.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.4 |
| Win chance | POR n/a · ORL n/a | POR 55% · ORL 45% |
| Fair moneyline | POR -124 · ORL +124 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Magic 115, Trail Blazers 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Trail Blazers by 19 and Magic by 15.
Side by side
| POR | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-3 |
| -0.5 18 | Net rating | -0.2 17 |
| 110.9 21 | Offensive rating | 110.4 22 |
| 111.4 12 | Defensive rating | 110.6 9 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 28 |
| 54.1% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 53.9% 9 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.9 11 |
| 30.9% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 24.8% 19 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 34.0% 29 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 103.1 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | 2025-26 | ORL 110 @ POR 106 | ORL |
| 2025-11-10 | 2025-26 | POR 112 @ ORL 115 | ORL |
| 2025-01-30 | 2024-25 | ORL 90 @ POR 119 | POR |
| 2025-01-23 | 2024-25 | POR 101 @ ORL 79 | POR |
| 2024-04-01 | 2023-24 | POR 103 @ ORL 104 | ORL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works