POR
PHI
Portland Trail Blazers @ Philadelphia 76ers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers
53% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why 76ers can win
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): 76ers 5th (13.1), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Home court: the 76ers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the 76ers win 5,330 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Body clock: the Trail Blazers cross 3 time zones.
- Strength: the 76ers rank 5th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (13.1).
Disadvantages Why 76ers may not
- Upset odds: the Trail Blazers win 4,670 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Trail Blazers 2nd (30.9%), 76ers 18th (25.1%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the 76ers lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the 76ers rank 27th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (52.7%).
- Weak spot: the 76ers rank 26th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (72.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -1 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.1 |
| Win chance | POR n/a · PHI n/a | POR 47% · PHI 53% |
| Fair moneyline | POR +114 · PHI -114 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: 76ers 116, Trail Blazers 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Trail Blazers by 15 and 76ers by 18.
Side by side
| POR | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| -0.5 18 | Net rating | -0.9 20 |
| 110.9 21 | Offensive rating | 111.2 19 |
| 111.4 12 | Defensive rating | 112.1 16 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 52.7% 27 |
| 54.1% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 11 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.1 5 |
| 30.9% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 25.1% 18 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 34.7% 23 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 102.7 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | 2025-26 | POR 103 @ PHI 109 | PHI |
| 2026-02-09 | 2025-26 | PHI 118 @ POR 135 | POR |
| 2025-03-03 | 2024-25 | POR 119 @ PHI 102 | POR |
| 2024-12-30 | 2024-25 | PHI 125 @ POR 103 | PHI |
| 2024-01-29 | 2023-24 | PHI 104 @ POR 130 | POR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works