POR
PHX
Portland Trail Blazers @ Phoenix Suns
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Suns -14.3.
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 5,390 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.9 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.2 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Trail Blazers 12th (0.21), Suns 28th (0.18).
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 4,610 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Three-point shooting: Suns 13th (35.9%), Trail Blazers 28th (34.1%).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Suns 19th (14.5), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Trail Blazers lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -1.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 229 |
| Win chance | POR n/a · PHX n/a | POR 54% · PHX 46% |
| Fair moneyline | POR -117 · PHX +117 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Suns 114, Trail Blazers 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Trail Blazers by 18 and Suns by 15.
Side by side
| POR | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-2 |
| -0.5 18 | Net rating | +0.2 16 |
| 110.9 21 | Offensive rating | 111.8 17 |
| 111.4 12 | Defensive rating | 111.6 13 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 53.7% 19 |
| 54.1% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 54.3% 16 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 19 |
| 30.9% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 7 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 35.9% 13 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 100.3 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | 2026-27 | PHX 83 @ POR 124 | POR |
| 2026-04-14 | 2025-26 | POR 114 @ PHX 110 | POR |
| 2026-02-22 | 2025-26 | POR 92 @ PHX 77 | POR |
| 2026-02-03 | 2025-26 | PHX 130 @ POR 125 | PHX |
| 2025-11-18 | 2025-26 | PHX 127 @ POR 110 | PHX |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works