POR
SAC
Portland Trail Blazers @ Sacramento Kings
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
72% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.1 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Kings -16.6.
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 7,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.1 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5), Kings 29th (-10.1).
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Kings win 2,830 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Kings 14th (14.1), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Trail Blazers lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: the Trail Blazers rank 30th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (16.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -7.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.6 |
| Win chance | POR n/a · SAC n/a | POR 72% · SAC 28% |
| Fair moneyline | POR -253 · SAC +253 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Kings 113, Trail Blazers 121.
- 80% of simulations land between Trail Blazers by 23 and Kings by 9.
Side by side
| POR | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 0-5 |
| -0.5 18 | Net rating | -10.1 29 |
| 110.9 21 | Offensive rating | 108.3 28 |
| 111.4 12 | Defensive rating | 118.5 28 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 29 |
| 54.1% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 57.3% 29 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.1 14 |
| 30.9% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 25.8% 14 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 33.8% 30 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 102.4 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | 2026-27 | POR 128 @ SAC 120 | POR |
| 2026-04-12 | 2025-26 | SAC 110 @ POR 122 | POR |
| 2026-01-18 | 2025-26 | POR 117 @ SAC 110 | POR |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-26 | POR 98 @ SAC 93 | POR |
| 2025-12-18 | 2025-26 | SAC 133 @ POR 134 | POR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works