POR
SAS
Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
69% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5).
- Simulation: the Spurs win 6,910 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.2 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Spurs 6th (13.3), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Home court: the Spurs play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Trail Blazers win 3,090 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Trail Blazers 7th (15.0), Spurs 25th (13.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 10 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Trail Blazers 2nd (30.9%), Spurs 10th (26.4%).
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -6.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.5 |
| Win chance | POR n/a · SAS n/a | POR 31% · SAS 69% |
| Fair moneyline | POR +224 · SAS -224 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Spurs 118, Trail Blazers 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Trail Blazers by 10 and Spurs by 23.
Side by side
| POR | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| -0.5 18 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 110.9 21 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 111.4 12 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 54.1% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 30.9% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 10 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 35.8% 14 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 102.5 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | Playoffs | POR 95 @ SAS 114 | SAS |
| 2026-04-26 | Playoffs | SAS 114 @ POR 93 | SAS |
| 2026-04-24 | Playoffs | SAS 120 @ POR 108 | SAS |
| 2026-04-21 | Playoffs | POR 106 @ SAS 103 | POR |
| 2026-04-19 | Playoffs | POR 98 @ SAS 111 | SAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works