POR
TOR
Portland Trail Blazers @ Toronto Raptors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
62% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Simulation: the Raptors win 6,180 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Raptors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Raptors 8th (13.6), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Raptors 9th (+3.0), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Trail Blazers +8.8.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Trail Blazers win 3,820 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Trail Blazers 2nd (30.9%), Raptors 15th (25.7%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 21st of 30 in three-point shooting (35.2%).
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 20th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (73.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -3.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.1 |
| Win chance | POR n/a · TOR n/a | POR 38% · TOR 62% |
| Fair moneyline | POR +162 · TOR -162 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Raptors 116, Trail Blazers 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Trail Blazers by 13 and Raptors by 20.
Side by side
| POR | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| -0.5 18 | Net rating | +3.0 9 |
| 110.9 21 | Offensive rating | 112.4 15 |
| 111.4 12 | Defensive rating | 109.4 7 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 15 |
| 54.1% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 53.8% 8 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 8 |
| 30.9% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 25.7% 15 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 35.2% 21 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 101.8 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | 2025-26 | TOR 110 @ POR 98 | TOR |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-26 | POR 118 @ TOR 121 | TOR |
| 2025-04-03 | 2024-25 | POR 112 @ TOR 103 | POR |
| 2025-03-16 | 2024-25 | TOR 102 @ POR 105 | POR |
| 2024-03-09 | 2023-24 | TOR 118 @ POR 128 | POR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works