POR
UTA
Portland Trail Blazers @ Utah Jazz
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
They play soon: see the game page with the betting line and the injury report.
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
62% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Jazz -7.8.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.1 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 6,230 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.9 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 3,770 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Jazz play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Trail Blazers lose by 12 or more.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Jazz 21st (14.8), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Weak spot: the Trail Blazers rank 30th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (16.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -4.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.1 |
| Win chance | POR n/a · UTA n/a | POR 62% · UTA 38% |
| Fair moneyline | POR -165 · UTA +165 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Jazz 116, Trail Blazers 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Trail Blazers by 20 and Jazz by 12.
Side by side
| POR | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| -0.5 18 | Net rating | -7.9 27 |
| 110.9 21 | Offensive rating | 111.1 20 |
| 111.4 12 | Defensive rating | 119.0 29 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 53.6% 20 |
| 54.1% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 57.6% 30 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.8 21 |
| 30.9% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 12 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 34.4% 24 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 105.6 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | 2025-26 | UTA 114 @ POR 124 | POR |
| 2026-02-12 | 2025-26 | POR 135 @ UTA 119 | POR |
| 2026-01-05 | 2025-26 | UTA 117 @ POR 137 | POR |
| 2025-10-29 | 2025-26 | POR 136 @ UTA 134 | POR |
| 2025-04-09 | 2024-25 | POR 126 @ UTA 133 | UTA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works