SAC

Sacramento Kings @ Atlanta Hawks

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

ATL

Our pick

ATLAtlanta Hawks

80% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

AZMango model

SAC 20%ATL 80%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Hawks can win

Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.1 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Hawks +4.2, Kings -16.6.
Simulation: the Hawks win 8,050 of 10,000 simulated games.
The Hawks' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 11th in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 29th.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hawks 14th (+1.2), Kings 29th (-10.1).

Disadvantages Why Hawks may not

Upset odds: the Kings win 1,950 of 10,000 simulations (19%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 5 or more.
Weak spot: the Hawks rank 27th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Kings 14th (25.8%), Hawks 20th (24.3%).
Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Kings 21st (0.20), Hawks 27th (0.18).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	ATL -11.3
Total points	n/a	235.5
Win chance	SAC n/a · ATL n/a	SAC 20% · ATL 80%
Fair moneyline		SAC +413 · ATL -413

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Hawks 123, Kings 112.
80% of simulations land between Kings by 5 and Hawks by 28.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

SAC		ATL
0-5	Record	3-3
-10.1 29	Net rating	+1.2 14
108.3 28	Offensive rating	112.5 14
118.5 28	Defensive rating	111.3 11
52.4% 29	Effective FG%	55.0% 11
57.3% 29	Opponent eFG%	54.6% 19
14.1 14	Turnovers per 100	13.6 7
25.8% 14	Offensive rebound %	24.3% 20
33.8% 30	3-point %	36.7% 7
102.4 16	Pace	104.3 6

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-03-28	2025-26	SAC 113 @ ATL 123	ATL
2025-11-12	2025-26	ATL 133 @ SAC 100	ATL
2024-11-18	2024-25	ATL 109 @ SAC 108	ATL
2024-11-01	2024-25	SAC 123 @ ATL 115	SAC
2024-01-22	2023-24	ATL 107 @ SAC 122	SAC

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

SAC

Domantas Sabonis F

16.1 pts, 12.4 reb, 4.8 ast in 31.2 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

SAC

Zach LaVine G

20 pts, 2.8 reb, 2.4 ast in 32 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

SAC

Darius Acuff Jr. G

24 pts, 3.4 reb, 6.6 ast in 36.4 min, 38% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

ATL

Jalen Johnson F

22.1 pts, 10 reb, 7.7 ast in 35.1 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

ATL

Nickeil Alexander-Walker G

20.3 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.5 ast in 33.3 min, 45% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

ATL

Dyson Daniels G

11.5 pts, 6.7 reb, 5.8 ast in 32.5 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Hawks beat the Kings 123-113 at home (2026-03-28). The difference: they made 16 threes to 12, a 12-point swing. Nickeil Alexander-Walker led the Hawks with 27 points.