SAC

Sacramento Kings @ Brooklyn Nets

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

BKN

Our pick

BKNBrooklyn Nets

62% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

SAC 38%BKN 62%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Nets can win

Simulation: the Nets win 6,200 of 10,000 simulated games.
Home court: the Nets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Nets -9.8, Kings -16.6.
Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to the Nets in our ratings.
Body clock: the Kings cross 3 time zones.

Disadvantages Why Nets may not

Upset odds: the Kings win 3,800 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Kings 14th (14.1), Nets 29th (15.8).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nets lose by 13 or more.
Weak spot: the Nets rank 30th of 30 in offense, points per 100 possessions (105.9).
Weak spot: the Nets rank 30th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (52.0%).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	BKN -3.8
Total points	n/a	233.5
Win chance	SAC n/a · BKN n/a	SAC 38% · BKN 62%
Fair moneyline		SAC +163 · BKN -163

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Nets 119, Kings 115.
80% of simulations land between Kings by 13 and Nets by 21.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Plain links. We are not paid for them and take no bets.

Side by side

SAC		BKN
0-5	Record	0-4
-10.1 29	Net rating	-9.9 28
108.3 28	Offensive rating	105.9 30
118.5 28	Defensive rating	115.9 26
52.4% 29	Effective FG%	52.0% 30
57.3% 29	Opponent eFG%	57.2% 28
14.1 14	Turnovers per 100	15.8 29
25.8% 14	Offensive rebound %	23.8% 23
33.8% 30	3-point %	34.2% 27
102.4 16	Pace	100.4 24

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-03-29	2025-26	SAC 99 @ BKN 116	BKN
2026-03-22	2025-26	BKN 122 @ SAC 126	SAC
2025-01-27	2024-25	SAC 110 @ BKN 96	SAC
2024-11-24	2024-25	BKN 108 @ SAC 103	BKN
2024-04-07	2023-24	SAC 107 @ BKN 77	SAC

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

SAC

Domantas Sabonis F

16.1 pts, 12.4 reb, 4.8 ast in 31.2 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 26 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.2%)

SAC

Zach LaVine G

20 pts, 2.8 reb, 2.4 ast in 32 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 26 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.2%)

SAC

Darius Acuff Jr. G

24 pts, 3.4 reb, 6.6 ast in 36.4 min, 38% FG

vs a defense ranked 26 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.2%)

BKN

Michael Porter Jr. F

24.1 pts, 7.1 reb, 2.9 ast in 32.5 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

BKN

Julius Randle F

22.5 pts, 7.5 reb, 5.8 ast in 35.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

BKN

Nic Claxton C

11.7 pts, 6.9 reb, 3.7 ast in 27.8 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Nets beat the Kings 116-99 at home (2026-03-29). The difference: they shot 59% effective field goal percentage to 49% and they made 17 threes to 10, a 21-point swing.